Garcia redux? (examining the Phils bullpen)

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Wasn’t that nice of Brad Lidge? Before Phillies fans got overexcited about the upcoming season, he did us the courtesy of tempering expectations by reinjuring his knee on Saturday during batting practice. If you don’t get your hopes up, then how can you be disappointed, right?

Forgive us for being pessimistic, but it seems like we’ve seen this before: new acquisition promises to bolster team, new acquisition can’t stay healthy, new acquisition walks at the end of the year (coughcoughFreddyGarciacough). Of course, we may be getting a bit ahead of ourselves — he is slotted to be back probably a week or two into the season — but we’ve seen injuries like this linger.

Anyway, we figure this gives us an excuse to take a look at the Phillies bullpen. We did say a few weeks ago that “It all hinges on Brad Lidge,” so we’re off to quite the flying start here. Taking him out of the picture for the time being, let’s round up the other usual suspects and look at what happens under two scenarios: (1) if Lidge returns promptly; and (2) if Lidge stays out for any extended period of time.

Tom Gordon
Lidge returns: Gordon sets up for as long as he’s healthy. Manuel should seriously try to limit his innings this year, because Flash ain’t as durable as he used to be — he’s made trips to the DL each of the past two years, including a stint last year that lasted all of May and June, and half of July. He was a horse for the Phils down the stretch (posting a 3.94 ERA in September while pitching 13 times in 17 days), but no one has a right to expect that of ol’ Tom anymore, not with his balky shoulder.
Lidge pulls a Garcia: Gordon closes… and all of Philadelphia closes its eyes. If it’s optimistic to expect Gordon to be an effective setup man, it’s pure fantasy to think he can close for any extended period of time. We’d be mildly comfortable with Flash closing for a week or two at the beginning of the season, when he’s fresh, but any longer and you’re asking for one of those patented April swoons that the Fightins are so notorious for.

J.C. Romero
Lidge returns: Romero sets up and functions as the pen’s go to lefty. He won’t post insane numbers like he did last year (3.72 hits per 9 innings is the definition of unsustainable), but he’s apparently truly happy with his mechanics for the first time in his career, and he should be solid in his role. He and Lidge make for a hard-throwing combo to toss at teams in the 8th and 9th innings.
Lidge pulls a Garcia: Romero helps close out some games and winds up pitching too many innings in too many pressure situations. The downside of his hard-throwing style is that he’s a little wild, and with Gordon not getting the K’s he used to, utilizing a back end of Romero and Gordon is only asking for trouble.

Ryan Madson
Lidge returns: Madson pitches the 6th and 7th innings, a role he’s both comfortable in and well-suited for. The various projection systems (particularly PECOTA) aren’t exactly in love with Madson, but when he’s used solely as a reliever, he has a career 3.22 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. His lanky frame makes his delivery awkward for hitters to get a read on, and when he’s able to utilize his offspeed stuff more, he’s most effective.
Lidge pulls a Garcia: Madson gets bumped up in the pen — see a trend here? — and winds up in a role that he may or may not be comfortable with. I like Madson a lot more than most Phils fans I know, but the thought of consistently seeing him in the 8th and 9th innings unnerves even me.

Chad Durbin
Lidge returns: Durbin’s role is nowhere near set in stone. He’s technically competing for the fifth starter spot, but it’s probably a longshot at best that he winds up in that role. He’s likely to stick as either a middle reliever or a long man/spot starter. If it were my decision, I’d use Durbin to fill the Geoff Geary role and save the spot starter position for someone with more upside (like Travis Blackley or J.D. Durbin).
Lidge pulls a Garcia: Since he has no defined role right now, Durbin probably couldn’t give a crap less about whether Lidge comes back or not. Okay, that’s not really true, but you get the point. Durbin is going to make this team in some capacity, and a delayed return for Lidge might convince the Phils that they need to keep as many dependable veteran arms in the bullpen as possible — and voilá, Durbin becomes the new Geoff Geary.

Okay, the rest of the bullpen fodder aren’t exactly candidates to close, so their roles aren’t likely to change very much no matter what happens with Lidge. So from here on out we’re going to eliminate the distinction we used before and just give a quick blurb on their chances of making the team. Of course, Lidge’s injury does have one major effect on this crew: it probably opens up one more roster spot for someone to break camp with the team.

Clay Condrey
Your classic AAAA pitcher, Condrey has been passed through waivers by the Phillies a number of times over the past few years. What you see is what you get, but he did a serviceable job as a long man for the Phils last year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him make the roster, but I have a feeling we’ll see him waived again, and if he makes it through, he’ll spend the year waiting around Allentown for the Phils to decide they need him again.

J.D. Durbin
The only player on this list to throw a shutout against Jake Peavy. Durbin’s numbers from last year certainly don’t jump out at you, but he’s one of the few players on this list with any upside (remember, he was a highly regarded Twins prospect just a few years back). He’s out of options, so the Phils would have to pass him through waivers to send him to AAA, and you’d have to think some team would take a flier on him. So it’s likely do or die for the Real Deal: he either makes the roster or he’s done as a Phillie. I’d prefer to keep him as the long man/spot starter and see if I can hammer out his control — he’s got a good repertoire with a fastball, slider and power curve, so if Rich Dubee can straighten him out, the Phils could find themselves with a decent affordable young pitcher.

Fabio Castro
Or, as the prospect site Phuture Phillies has so fondly referred to him, the Model Dictator. Castro has two options left, so it might not be wise to have him break camp with the team and then waste one of those by sending him down early in the season (if Lidge returns at that point). But the Phils like Castro enough to have stashed him on the 25 man roster for the whole year two years ago, and he was effective, if a bit wild, in an August 23 start against the Dodgers. If Gillick and Manuel decide they want a lefty middle reliever on the roster, this is the direction they’ll likely head in.

Travis Blackley
The first of the Phillies Rule 5 picks, Blackley is auditioning for the fifth starter’s spot as well as a position in the pen. I guess there’s a chance he winds up in the rotation, but I’d honestly expect to see Adam Eaton there before him. My gut feeling is that it will come down to Blackley and J.D. Durbin for one spot, and since the Aussie was allegedly one of Gillick’s favorite prospects back in Seattle, I’ll give the edge to Blackley at this point.

Francisco Rosario/Lincoln Holdzkom
Two guys in the same boat: make the roster or go home. I actually like Rosario as a dark horse to make the roster: he throws really hard, a trait Manuel likes, and a guy with that kind of upside is usually worth keeping. If the Phils decide he isn’t, then he hits waivers. Holdzkom was the second Rule 5 pick and would have to pitch lights out in camp to wind up in Philly. With the bullpen in flux, it might be a good idea for Gillick to try to work out a deal with the Red Sox, Holdzkom’s previous club, for the Phils to keep him in AAA.

Mike Zagurski/Scott Mathieson
The lefty-righty walking wounded. Zagurski has said that his hamstring is still balky and won’t be ready in time for him to compete for a roster spot, so he’ll have to work his way back into shape in extended spring training or somewhere in the minors. Mathieson is making a comeback from Tommy John surgery and will likewise start the 2008 campaign in the minors. The Phils still might like Mathieson as a starter, but he could develop into a short-term solution in the bullpen: he’s got a fastball that he can dial up to the high 90’s and a slider with good movement, a two-pitch mix that would serve him well in a setup role. Keep an eye on the Canadian as the season progresses.

Shane Youman/Joe Bisenius
Both have two options left, and both are likely to be stashed in AAA to start the year (barring a lights out spring training, of course). Youman was claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh in November after the Bucs failed to convert him into an effective starter. But Youman was a college closer, and he’s posted a 3.54 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 20.1 major league innings when used as a reliever. Unlike the soft-tossing Youman, Bisenius throws straight gas, highlighted by a mid 90’s fastball. He actually broke camp with the Phils last year, but when he returned to AAA, his command deserted him. If Bisenius can cut down on the walks, he’s another candidate for a midseason call-up.

This can serve as your “who’s who” list for the Phillies’ open competition for the bullpen this spring. It’s a pretty simple philosophy: throw a ton of shit against a wall and pray to God that something sticks. Personally, I’m not as upset about this as some might be… who’s decent as a relief pitcher fluctuates so much from year to year that it’s simply bad business to overpay for mediocre bullpen guys. It’s also bad business for your closer to go down throwing batting practice just as spring training gets underway, but there’s nothing we can do about that for the time being.

I’ll finish this dissertation with my early guess for the bullpen at the end of spring training (with the assumption that Eaton grabs the final rotation spot): Gordon, Romero, Madson, both Durbins, Castro, and Blackley. Not a particularly fearsome group, to be sure. So please, Brad Lidge… hurry back.

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Filed under Philadelphia, Philadelphia Phillies

Tags: Brad Lidge, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey, Fabio Castro, Francisco Rosario, J.C. Romero, J.D. Durbin, Joe Bisenius, Lincoln Holdzkom, Mike Zagurski, Ryan Madson, Scott Mathieson, Shane Youman, Spring Training 2008, Tom Gordon, Travis Blackley