We’re just over two weeks from Opening Day and the Phillies’ fifth starter is about as set in stone as the Democratic presidential nomination. About 10% of this is because there are so many candidates for the fifth spot; the other 90% is because not a single one of those candidates has looked anything like a major league starter this spring.
The ironic thing is that the whole process appears to have come full circle since Spring Training began: Adam Eaton was probably the slight favorite heading into this year, and after three weeks in Clearwater, he appears to be the slight favorite once again. Of course, that has way more to do with the failures of others than with any of Eaton’s, ahem, successes. Want proof? Take a look at the other candidates’ ERAs this spring:
Travis Blackley: 9.45
Fabio Castro: 6.00
Chad Durbin: 7.20
J.D. Durbin: 10.95
Josh Outman: 9.35
Francisco Rosario: 5.91
Eaton’s own ERA is 9.00, but he’s in pole position (if you can call it that) because he was effective in his Saturday outing against the Twins, scattering 5 hits over 3 innings of scoreless work, with no walks and two strikeouts.
A quick walkthrough of the candidates, with their performance so far this spring and odds of breaking camp as the caboose in the Phils’ rotation:
Adam Eaton
The de facto frontrunner for the mentions reasoned above. While his shoulder hasn’t caused him any problems yet this spring, his back has apparently been acting up. Maybe that’s good news; maybe if he actually gets healthy, he can be a sub-5.00 ERA pitcher. Maybe.
Odds — 2:1
Travis Blackley
After a solid outing to start the spring, the Aussie was looking like a viable alternative to Eaton until he got lit up for 5 ER in 1.2 IP to the Indians on March 8. While he hasn’t yet been cut loose, as fellow Rule 5 draftee Lincoln Holdzkom was, Blackley should probably focus on making the bullpen if he wants to stick in Philly.
Odds — 6:1
J.D. Durbin
I was cautiously optimistic about the Real Deal heading into this spring, but he’s continued to battle control problems as he did last year: even more troubling than the Durbinator’s ERA is his 5:7 K:BB ratio in 12.1 IP. His latest misstep came today, when he surrendered a two-run homer to former Mets prospect Carlos Gomez — all 6′4″, 62 lbs. of him — en route to a 3.0 IP, 5 ER final line. Time’s running out for J.D. to turn it around.
Odds — 8:1
Chad Durbin
The other Durbin hasn’t seen a lot of work this spring, but he hasn’t exactly been stellar in his 5.0 IP: 6 H, 4 ER, 5 K. He’s currently on a beeline to the long reliever/spot starter role.
Odds — 5:1
Fabio Castro
The Phillies like Castro, this much we know, but whether that’s as a starter or reliever is still undecided. He was always an extreme longshot to break camp as the fifth starter, so his struggles this spring aren’t too troubling. Here’s hoping he winds up in AAA and hones his skill as either a starter or LOOGY, whichever role the Phils envision for him.
Odds — 15:1
Josh Outman
Outman’s struggles this spring may be a blessing in disguise. The lefty struggled after his midseason promotion to Reading last year (4.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 34:23 K:BB in 42.0 IP) — he needs to dominate there before he’s ready for the majors. With as bad as the others have pitched this spring, a decent couple of outings from Outman may have garnered him the fifth starter’s spot — which may have hampered his long-term development.
Odds: off
Francisco Rosario
The quintessential darkhorse, Rosario was underwhelming as a reliever last year, but the buzz started to grow for the former minor league starter after a decent couple of outings. How did he respond? By getting tagged for 6 ER in 2.0 IP against the Braves last Friday. Frankie’s a hard thrower, so if he’s able to bounce back from that shellacking, he actually has a decent shot to claim the fifth starter’s spot. If not, it’s either relief or the unemployment line.
Odds — 5:1
Kris Benson
If he can stay healthy — which is, granted, a big “if” given his surgically-reconstructed shoulder — Benson may be the best bet to occupy that fifth spot over the long haul. In the meantime, however, he’s slowly working his way back into game shape by pitching simulated games. The Phils hope he’ll be ready sometime in April, though it would certainly be wise not to rush him back.
Odds — off
So that about wraps it up… “But wait,” some of our readers are undoubtedly saying right now, “Those odds only add up to about 98.3%. They should add up to 100%, dipshit.” Very astute of you, readers (we know you all did the math because of your insatiable curiosity and love for mathematics; it’s a trait common to all TGE readers).
So where is the other 1.7%? Well, it’s the possibility that someone will read the above classified ad, show up at Spring Training, and outperform the above list of pitchers. You hear that, Robert Person? Damn, where is that guy when you need him?
1 Comment
July 1, 2008 at 10:38 pm
[...] Blackley was the Phils’ Rule 5 pick over the winter, but after a disappointing spring and a DL stint, he dropped off the radar. He’s resurfaced in Lehigh Valley, where he’s [...]