We introduce you to… a program on life support

You join us at an interesting time for the PC men’s basketball program: we’re witnessing the death throes of the decade-long Tim Welsh era, as a team picked to finish eighth in the Big East has stumbled to a 13-10 mark overall and a 4-7 record in conference play. While Friar fans have begun to compile their lists for potential Welsh replacements, we’ll just point out that Welsh is merely a dead man walking at this point, and not yet a dead man (as long as PC AD Bob Driscoll is to be believed). So we’ll save our discussion of candidates for another day, but don’t worry… it’s something we plan to consider at length.

For the time being, I’d like to talk about what this program can realistically expect to achieve. PC finds itself in a difficult situation (see the Providence overview for this site if you want a refresher), but at the same time, I think it’s pretty clear what the realistic goals should be. Too often, PC fans are broad-brushed as starry-eyed dreamers who get angry that the Friars don’t stack up with UConn and Louisville every year, and that’s unfair.

To help me flesh out these points, I’m going to “pull an FJM” on a Bill Reynolds article from last week’s Providence Journal (if you’ve never been there, please check out the excellent Fire Joe Morgan blog to see what I’m talking about). Everything in bold is excerpted from Reynolds, and non-bold text is my comments. Without further ado…

“Friars’ Welsh deserves better than to be target of fans’ wrath”

… So what is going on here?

I suspect it’s several things.

At the most obvious, it’s the fact that the Friars are not as good as the fans want them to be. The basketball world has changed. Not only is the Big East a monster of a league that takes few prisoners, it’s a league with an unofficial tier system. The top teams are trying to get to the Final Four and win the national championship. The Friars are trying to get to the NCAA Tournament once every three or four years and save the coach’s job.

I think that’s a fair statement. An NCAA Tournament every three or four years is a good baseline for evaluating the program’s success. But don’t worry, he’ll slip into generalizations and stereotypes soon enough…

That’s the first disconnect.

It’s not the only one.

I have sat in the office with every PC coach since Mullaney’s second term, a list that includes Rick Pitino, Gordie Chiesa, Barnes and Pete Gillen. All have told me the same thing: this is a tougher job than they thought it was going to be, a tougher job than people realize. And yet people here expect this program to win and win big, as if for no other reason than once upon a time it did…

I call bullshit. Where are the legions of PC fans who expect a Final Four team? How often do you see PC fans crying in the stands after our chance at a perfect season ends (i.e. sometime before the middle of December)? I swear that everyone who followed the team during the glory days of the 1970’s must sit right behind the sportswriters and huff and puff every game that, “This team should be in the Tournament every year, and winning the Big East once every three years, because that’s what it was like back when dunking was illegal.” I mean, that’s the only logical explanation, right?

… But even if Providence College ultimately decides it wants to go into the future with a new coach, this is not being handled well. Letting Welsh go into this year with his contract status unresolved, when everyone knew he had two years left and that no school lets a coach go into a last year of a contract, has made this season a referendum year on Welsh…

Let’s say I’ve had a job for ten years, and I’ve been positively mediocre at it for all ten of those years. So what you’re saying, Bill — I can call you Bill, right? — is that instead of evaluating me, my company should just agree to extend my contract an extra year for absolutely no reason other than that’s the only way it can be “handled well,” according to you? That’s nuts. If ten years isn’t a big enough sample size to make a decision on someone, I have no idea why eleven years would be.

…No matter that this is a team that beat UConn on the road and should have beaten Notre Dame…

Just stop right there. You’re trying to make an argument that Welsh deserves to keep his job, and as evidence for that you say that his team “should have beaten Notre Dame.” I must have missed the NCAA rule change that says that coaches should get credit for near misses. “Hey, Charlie Weis: you almost beat Navy this year, so let’s just pretend that that 45 year winning streak reached 46. Keep up the good work, and you’ll get (another) contract extension.”

Providence should have beaten a lot of teams this year. South Carolina, DePaul, Seton Hall, and West Virginia, to name a few. The latter three were at home; all were winnable games. Because a couple of those were close, he should get credit? Doesn’t that fly in the face of logic… you know, that good coaches help their teams win close games? Ahhh, f*** logic, we’re in over our heads with you here, Bill.

…Welsh has been to two NCAA Tournaments and made three NIT appearances in nine years. Many people in basketball would tell you that’s not bad in today’s Big East. Not at PC. Even if many fans don’t want to hear it…

Hmmm, two NCAA Tourneys and three NITs. Good, I like when people back up their opinions with fact. But there are some numbers you forgot: an 0-2 record in those Big Dances, a 1-8 record in the Big East Tournament, and an 8-21 record in March. But don’t let facts get in the way of your argument.

Look, I like Tim Welsh. He’s well-spoken, he has an eye for the odd recruiting gem, and he’s allegedly well-liked within the basketball community. But two postseason victories in 10 years should tell you the whole story, and any attempt to argue that he should keep his job based on the merits is just plain ludicrous. Alright, that’s enough for now… we can finish the anatomy of a coach’s firing when it actually happens in a couple of weeks.